China’s Today, Tomorrow and Beyond

Chi Xia-Sheng (漆俠生)passed away on April 22, 2008, in his native Yifeng, Jiangxi, China. He was 96. I can think of few lives that symbolized the heroic struggles and monumental changes that took place in China over the century more than Mr. Chi’s.

His story is one that I know intimately well. He was my great uncle.

Born in Yifeng in 1912, Mr. Chi’s birth coincided with the founding of the Chinese republic. But the most turbulent time in modern Chinese history was just beginning. His native province Jiangxi was a fertile ground first for warlords and then the nascent communist insurgency. It was in the poor villages of Jiangxi where Mao first set up shop, looting and shooting, all in the name of revolution. One of the unfortunate souls, whose lifeless body was dragged around the streets of Yifeng in 1927, was Mr. Chi’s mother — my great grandmother.

As did the rest of his family, Mr. Chi became an ardent anti-communist and joined the Kuomintang. Chiang Kai-shek, fresh off a successful Northern Expedition that nominally united China, was beginning his chase for Mao. It was during this time that Mr. Chi and my grandfather, his younger brother, joined the KMT. They spent a few years flushing the Reds out of Jiangxi, as Mao embarked on his Long March.

With the Communists out of Jiangxi, Mr. Chi took on new duties to reform the countryside. But the time of tranquility proved short lived. The Japanese invaded China in 1937, and within two years, Nanchang, the provincial capital of Jiangxi, fell. Mr. Chi, as with the rest of the KMT forces, fell back, first to Changsha, then Chungking, China’s wartime capital after the fall of Nanking.

During the protracted retreat, Mr. Chi was unable to maintain constant contact with his family, who was left in the Japanese-occupied Jiangxi. He finally returned home in 1945 following Japan’s surrender, but again peace proved fleeting. The guns roared once more as the Chinese Civil War broke out. And within four years, it was to swallow China whole.

By the fall of 1948, a storm was sweeping China from north to south. The Communists, nearly vanquished by Chiang before the Japanese invasion, now had emerged as an irresistible force. Mr. Chi’s various postings took him to Shanghai, Nanking and Wuhan. But by the beginning of 1949, it was nearly certain that Mao’s troops would emerge victorious.

The fall of KMT in mainland China was stunningly swift. By April 1949, the Communists crossed the Yangtze River, the last natural barrier in their quest of a complete victory. The remnants of KMT fell back, first to Chungking, then Guilin and finally, by the end of 1949, to Kunming, in the southwestern corner of China.

This was when another tragedy, and a dilemma, awaited Mr. Chi. My grandfather, by then having risen through the ranks to become the adjutant of Chiang Ching-Kuo — son of Chiang Kai-shek — was able to bring along his family during every step of KMT’s retreat. And a large family it was — his pregnant wife (my grandmother) and four children, with my father the eldest. Mr. Chi, in contrast, had to leave his own wife and two young daughters behind.

By this hour, there was neither time nor opportunity for Mr. Chi to retrieve his family. He had two choices: Help my grandfather to shepherd along his family to the next safe haven; or return to his family in Jiangxi but face certain torture and death as an officer in the KMT army — and one with intimate connection to the Chiangs. After a few agonizing days, he made up his mind.

It was a decision that would haunt him for the next half century. With the governor of Yunnan Province about to switch allegiance to the Communists, Mr. Chi and my grandfather’s clan boarded one of the last few flights leaving Kunming on a chilly December morning. By nightfall, the Reds’ takeover of mainland China would be mostly complete.

Along with my grandfather’s family, Mr. Chi would settle in Taiwan, facing an uncertain future. While a Communist seaborne and airborne invasion never materialized — thanks to the outbreak of the Korean War, for the most part — there was a sense that, for the 2 million KMT refugees who followed Chiang to Taiwan, they would never see China again.

It was against this backdrop that Mr. Chi went about his business. I was born in 1969, and as a toddler and young boy, got to know him and really enjoyed being around him. Whereas my own grandfather was stern and demanding, my great uncle was just that, great. He was optimistic and gregarious. He loved to travel but was hemmed in by the political isolation of Taiwan. Going to China, of course, was out of question.

He never let on how much he regretted leaving his family behind. But he struggled daily with this decision. With no contact whatsoever between China and Taiwan for 30 years, he had no way of knowing whether his family members were even alive, let along well.

A breakthrough, finally, came in the 1980s, as China reopened its doors to the outside world, as well as Taiwan.

(Continued in Part II)

Whenever I see a “Free Tibet” bumper sticker on the back of a car, I just want to gag. Actually, I want to pull the driver out of her car and demand that she find Tibet on a world map. Five bucks say she can’t. Five more bucks say she can’t name one Tibetan city besides Lhasa.

So what is this all about? Free Tibet is a favorite left-liberal cause. Hollywood types love to triangulate between Cuba, Tibet and Palestine. Pretty senseless, really. One is one of the planet’s last totalitarian communist regimes, one is under the armed occupation of another communist regime, and one freely elects a terrorist organization to govern.

But without a doubt, Tibet is a cause celebre of the activist types. For the life of me, I can’t quite figure this one out. If you’re truly interested in liberating people from an oppressive regime, why not look at the billion Han Chinese first?

Unbeknownst to most of the Free Tibet rabble rousers, Communist China has traditionally treated Tibet with kid gloves (comparatively speaking, of course). Since the invasion of Tibet in 1950, there may have been hundreds killed and hundreds jailed in over a half century on the Roof of the World. Communists frequently murder and incarcerate that many in China proper, in a single day.

The Beijing Olympics, with the world-wide torch relay, have become a convenient target for the Free Tibet movement, even before the riot/protest in mid-March. After the crackdown, Tibet will be a hot topic throughout the Olympics, foreshadowed by a potential boycott of the Games.

A boycott of any sort will serve only to enrage the Chinese — more than just the communist rulers, but the ordinary Chinese within and outside of China. A groundswell of anger over Tibet will not only fail to improve the situation in Tibet, but embolden the Chinese government to treat the dissident Tibetans harshly. Indeed, it’s been rightly speculated that the Beijing regime is under far greater domestic pressure in its dealings with Tibet.

That’s why it would be foolish for President Bush to snub the Chinese at the Olympics. The Beijing regime needs an excuse to lighten up on Tibet and Bush’s presence will provide that cover. Of course, while he’s there, he’d need to do more — for example, standing up for the dissidents, jailed journalists and a cornucopia of political prisoners.

But this is where the carrot should carry the day, not the stick. No matter how boisterous and in-your-face the Free Tibet crowd gets around the world, their protests will be pointless except to potentially strengthen the Chinese government. By boycotting the Olympics over Tibet (or even more senselessly, Darfur), the Free Tibet circus may only unwittingly entrench the position of the communists among the Chinese citizens.

The point, which obviously escapes the frenzied leftist Tibet-mongers, is that in order to truly help the Tibetans, they need to help the Chinese do away with their government first. Without a Free China, there will never be a Free Tibet.

You can almost hear the muttering and moaning inside the Zhongnanhai compound. The Chinese Communist leadership knows its dream Olympic showcase is slowly turning into an unfathomable nightmare.

The fuse was lit by a small and somewhat organized riot/protest in Lhasa in mid-March. After some killing and shooting, it’s become a worldwide spectacle. First, London. Then, Paris. Tomorrow, San Francisco. Unless China and the IOC decide that they’ve had enough and send the torch straight to Hong Kong and never wander outside of the Bamboo Curtain again.

But this had to happen. Even if it’s for all the wrong reasons. Yes, China’s oppression in Tibet is deplorable. Yes, China’s continued enabling of the Sudanese regime is regrettable. But at the end of the day, China’s most egregious violations of human rights occur everyday in China proper. If anything, the protests really should be about the billion-plus Chinese who are not free.

China has chucked all of its promises — the promises that won it the Games in 2001 — into the vast cesspool of the Three Gorges Dam. Press freedom? What are you talking about? One more word out of you it’d be jail time, or deportation if you’re fortunate enough to have a non-PRC passport. Respect for human rights? Sure, but if you don’t toe the company line then we’ll try — and certainly convict — you for treason and subversion.

For all their meticulous scheming, the Chinese Communists never made much contingency for this kind of spontaneous, globe-trotting combustion, timed precisely to ruin their best-laid plans. All the activists out there, whether their cause is Tibet or Darfur, have been licking their chops at this opportunity to make China squirm. All the better for them, they’re getting maximum press coverage while exercising their freedom of speech in the friendly confines of western cities.

Short of shutting down the torch relay now, there is no way that the Chinese government can contain a worldwide opposition to its hosting of the Olympics at this point in time. There will be more trouble ahead in New Delhi and Canberra, and maybe other points in between.

And disruption of the torch relay now serves merely as a prelude. French president Nicolas Sarkozy has suggested snubbing the Opening Ceremonies. Attendance by President Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown also has become a hot topic of discussion. With it, a number of western nations will have to seriously consider boycotting the Games all together.

The Chinese Communist leaders are in full damage-control mode. Is it possible for them to stifle all dissent within China, including Tibet, until August and allow all this furor to die down? It’s possible. But in this internet age, even a totalitarian regime cannot be certain of controlling all information to its liking. Should there be more bloodshed or more show trials, the rest of the world will find out about them soon enough. And when it does, China will pay the price.

The train has left the station. The 2008 Beijing Olympics promise to be the most politically charged Games since the semi-aborted affair in 1980. The question is: Will they be befallen by the same fate that doomed the Moscow Games?

Yes. A boycott is all but a certainty, only the size of the boycott is in question.

Even last week, I thought about urging President Bush not to attend the Beijing Olympics. My logic was simple: Did FDR show up in Berlin as Der Fuhrer’s guest of honor? Was Jimmy Carter ever going to grace Moscow with his presence even if he hadn’t ordered its boycott? Why would Bush want to have anything to do with a regime that has so much blood of innocents on its hands?

But after viewing the events in Tibet the last couple of weeks, I changed my mind. At the crossroads of history, the best thing for America to do, vis-a-vis China, is to engage her, instead of further enraging her.

I’m hardly the appeasement type. Usually, I advocate fighting to the death. But here is a strategic opportunity for real reform to take place in China. This kind of opportunity doesn’t come often, and it must not be missed.

To be sure, the Beijing regime is treating the Summer Games as China’s coming out party. Totalitarian outfits love using the Olympics as a showcase. Berlin 1936, with Leni Riefenstahl working the cameras, will never be topped as the finest hour for the art of propaganda. Though Moscow 1980 and Sarajevo 1984 tried in vain.

The leadership in Zhongnanhai has dusted off Hitler and Goebbels’ playbook and choreographed accordingly. Beijing was to be transformed from the massively polluted and congested grime into the beacon for Chinese-style socialism. And the rest of China, as far as anywhere the visitors can see, was to be made into a 21st century workers’ paradise, with a capitalist twist.

There’s just one problem on borrowing the Nazi script — this ain’t 1936. News get out, fast, and therefore you just can’t control everything, especially information.

Try as it might, the Beijing government is hardly omnipotent even within its own borders, thanks to rapid global communication. The skirmishes in Lhasa, no matter whose side you believe, proves this point. And trust me, that’s only the beginning. Between now and the opening ceremonies in August, there will be more bloodshed.

The communists are in a pickle here. Every group with a grievance will use this opportunity to be seen or heard. And there are plenty of them in China. If the regime employs a high-handed crackdown, it risks a possible international boycott and a massive loss of face. If it goes for a half-hearted slapdown, as it apparently did in Tibet, then it will only encourage more dissonance.

For this reason, it actually makes sense to fully engage China. President Bush no doubt will be keeping constant communication with China’s Hu Jintao during the period leading up to the event. There’s plenty to talk about: Human rights, Tibet, North Korea and of course, Taiwan. Luckily for Hu, thanks to Taiwan’s voters, his most thorny problem is at the moment the least of his concerns.

Bush needs to constantly remind Hu the commitments that China has made in order to win the bid for the Olympics. Sure, those commies are not really into keeping their word, but under a harsh international spotlight, they’d at least make a show of it. Liberty must always be topic No. 1, even if it annoys the hell out of Hu.

As good faith, Bush should fulfill his pledged appearance at the Games — even if Sarkozy and other European leaders bail at the last minute. The presence of a sitting American president will be an enormous boost to the Chinese leadership. But instead of allowing Hu and Co. to use this as a propaganda tool, Bush instead should be there as part enforcer, part shrink, counseling temperance over reprisal when and if more stuff hits the fan during the Games.

Will his mere presence help usher in an era of political reform in China? That’s doubtful. But by being there, Bush will do more good than harm. China’s government has invested so much in staging the Olympics, it’s not willing to let it fall to pieces by being trigger happy, especially with the leader of the world’s only uber-power on site as a distinguished guest.

That’s why this is one heck of an opportunity. By being in Beijing, Bush isn’t sticking up for the communist leadership, he will be serving the cause of liberty — for the billions of Chinese, for whom it’s long overdue.

Ma Ying-Jeou’s resounding victory in Saturday’s presidential election will usher in a new age in East Asia. Stability, the spirit of cooperation and perhaps, a sustainable peace, may finally find their place in the long troubled waters of the Taiwan Strait.

For that, we should thank Taiwan’s incredibly astute voters. Despite much speculation and media hand-wringing, the Taiwanese electorate never lost sight of what’s fundamentally important to them — economic recovery and political opportunity.

Taiwan has lost much during Chen Shui-Bian’s reign of terror over the past eight years. While the steaming Chinese market train chugged along, Taiwan missed out on the great opportunity despite all its advantages. And politically Taiwan continued to be marginalized because of Chen’s insistence on provocative yet unproductive rhetoric that incensed China and heaped untold annoyance on the United States — Taiwan’s security patron.

Chen’s failures as president has disastrous consequences for his party and its future. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was the majority party in parliament when Chen won the presidency in 2000. It was dominant in the south and competitive in the east and north. He won a disputed re-election in 2004, but mistook his narrow victory as a mandate, as he invested all his time plundering the government while sowing seeds of division between the islanders and mainlanders.

Taiwan’s electorate, who had its first taste of democracy only in the mid 1990s, at first was easily manipulated by Chen’s politicking. But remarkably, over the past four years, that electorate has grown considerably wiser. It delivered a devastating rebuke to the DPP in January’s parliamentary election, reducing it to a fringe minority party with fewer than one quarter of the seats. And last Saturday, DPP’s free fall from ruling party to political wilderness was complete.

Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) was clearly the beneficiary of voters’ resentment of DPP’s — and Chen’s — abject failures. But Ma and his party had better not squander this goodwill. Taiwan’s voters have given Ma and the KMT the next four years a carte blanche to get things done, and they’d better hit the ground running.

First and foremost, Taiwan needs to reach a long-term and meaningful detente with China. Essentially, without Chen’s idiotic saber-rattling, China will have no rational reason for military action against Taiwan. A political accommodation will improve Taiwan’s diplomatic standing in the world and a NAFTA-like pan-China trade agreement will be mutually beneficial.

Secondly, Ma’s election gives him an opportunity to rid of the divisive identity politics that Chen so treasured. A mainlander himself born in Hong Kong, Ma was nevertheless trusted by the voters who are overwhelmingly islanders. He won points with a clean campaign that’s focused on issues and also gentlemanly manners in great contrast to Chen’s (and his DPP successor Frank Hsieh’s) unrefined junkyard dog behavior.

Finally, and most importantly, a free, stable and peaceful Taiwan will have the greatest influence on China’s continued liberalization. As traffic between the island and mainland increases, Taiwan will become a shining example for many Chinese what future may hold for them. Most mainland Chinese are fascinated with Taiwan — for its democracy, prosperity and vibrancy. Taiwan has transformed itself from authoritarian rule to a full-fledged democracy in a quarter century — it can easily become the model for a country and people who know political reform is long overdue for an oppressive and corrupt regime.

Taiwan’s voters have chosen wisely. Now it’s up to their chosen politicians to carry out their agenda. For Ma, much is given and much is expected.

« go backkeep looking »